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CMHC expects Toronto sales to increase in 2026, even while prices remain below recent peaks.
Here’s the overlooked part: today’s abundant inventory could give patient buyers more choice and negotiating room.
Royal LePage expects GTA prices to decline 2% by Q4 2026, while activity continues building.
The bigger opportunity may be buying when competition is quiet—not perfectly predicting the market’s bottom.

Eligible Ontario new-home buyers can receive up to $130K in HST relief, renewing interest in pre-construction condos, semis, and townhouses across today's new-build market.
The full rebate applies up to $1M, remains available to $1.5M, then tapers to $24K for homes at $1.85M+ under current framework rules.
Tax savings do not change lender valuations; if the closing appraisal trails the contract price, buyers must cover any cash shortfall directly.
A federal banking regulator warned old blanket appraisals tied to purchase agreements may become outdated when new-build mortgage originations occur much later.
Buyers can reduce surprises by engaging a mortgage broker early, updating documents, reviewing contracts, budgeting cash reserves, and confirming assignment options with counsel.

Experts said Canada had taken small steps forward, with affordability improving in key markets, yet overall progress still fell short of solving supply challenges.
Canada has been building ~250K homes yearly, but restoring affordability and closing the backlog required ~400K to 470K new homes each year.
Over the past decade, population growth outpaced housing production, leaving a deficit that could not be erased quickly even if construction activity accelerated.
Public frustration stayed high: ~80% of Canadians said housing was not functioning properly, and ~75% felt too few homes were being built.
Looking ahead, pent-up demand could emerge when confidence improves, and housing was expected to remain a major political issue across Canada for voters.

A national index for 11 major metros slipped <0.5% MoM in the latest reading, marking eight declines in nine mo and reversing the prior uptick.
National prices sat at their weakest level since Early-Q2 2023, now ↓~4% from the Late-Q4 2025 peak reached nationally <1 yr earlier.
A rebound earlier in the year faded quickly: the adjusted measure ↓~0.5%, its first pullback in six mo after support from jobs and affordability.
Across major metros, yearly losses deepened to ~4% nationally. Vancouver, Hamilton, and Toronto led declines, while Quebec City, Montreal, and Winnipeg still posted gains.
Looking ahead, higher bond yields were expected to lift new mortgage costs, limit borrowing capacity, and pressure affordability as home sales began declining again.

Falling mortgage rates are improving affordability and encouraging more Canadians to resume postponed home-buying plans.
Household formation remains resilient despite slower national population growth this year.
More first-time buyers are expected to support activity across the broader resale market.
Market confidence is forecast to improve gradually through late 2026.

A global wealth manager ranked Toronto among the weakest major housing markets, with home prices ↓~11% yearly, the steepest annual drop across 23 tracked cities.
The firm said Toronto led from 2014 to 2022, with real home prices doubling during rapid population growth, strong investor demand and robust construction.
Since 2022, higher interest rates, a foreign-buyer ban and added supply had driven a sharp correction, leaving Toronto prices nearly ↓30% from peak.
Toronto landed in the report's moderate bubble-risk category because the correction had already narrowed the gap between home prices and what residents could afford.
The outlook then pointed to continued near-term price pressure in Toronto as inventory rose, growth slowed and possible rate hikes kept buyers cautious.

Ontario’s housing push faces a structural hurdle: fragmented zoning and code rules add cost, delay approvals, and make standardized building designs harder across municipalities.
The proposed fix centers on provincewide standards, as-of-right townhouses and multiplexes, tighter limits on parking and setbacks, and code reviews that could streamline projects.
Even with immediate reforms, Ontario municipalities would still need years to update plans, amend bylaws, align infrastructure, and process applications before supply meaningfully improves.
A current opening remains: eligible new-home buyers can access temporary HST relief through March 31, 2027, but builder track record still matters before signing.
Because new supply likely will not reshape affordability before 2031, buyers should plan around current prices, financing power, timelines, and the risks they can carry.

Canada’s six-mo housing-start trend recently slipped ↓~1% to 244K units nationwide, while actual starts in larger centres eased ↓~2% to 17.7K overall.
Current yr-to-date starts reached 149.5K units, down ~4% from the same period in 2025, showing construction still lagged policymakers’ push for faster building.
An economist at the national housing agency said starts were elevated versus recent years, but expected the downward trend to continue in the coming months.
Industry voices said homebuilders faced added pressure from geopolitical turmoil and the US-Canada trade conflict, especially as tariffs raised costs for construction materials.
The national housing agency projected new-home construction would keep declining through 2028, with condos especially weak amid high developer costs, soft demand, and surplus inventory.

Following the HST rebate program, demand increased for low-rise new homes in the GTA, signaling stronger buyer interest in that segment recently.
Builders responded to the demand uptick with a steady flow of new low-rise product, keeping the sector balanced and helping limit upward pricing pressure.
The condominium sector continued to struggle to fully participate, as rules around construction start and completion dates limited how much this segment benefited.
Gross pricing was not adjusted for any rebate, but qualifying purchasers could realize additional savings, improving affordability and supporting new homeownership in the GTA.
Industry leaders said measures like this can strengthen the region's economic outlook, protect jobs, and they want governments to help the condo sector participate.

Before closing, Ontario buyers need cash for deposit, land transfer tax, legal fees, and adjustments, not just mortgage payments and the down payment.
Ontario’s minimum down payment rises as a home’s price climbs, and smaller down payments can trigger mortgage insurance added into monthly payments.
Ontario buyers need land transfer tax paid in full at closing, and the deposit is only an upfront portion of the total down payment.
Ontario requires a Real Estate lawyer, often budgeted near ~$2K, and buyers should also expect closing adjustments for prepaid taxes, condo fees, or fuel.
Eligible first-time buyers may access provincial rebates, including a full HST rebate on new homes through Late-Q1 2027, and pre-approval can prevent financing surprises.